Transient social-ecological dynamics reveal signals of decoupling in a highly disturbed Anthropocene landscape

Abstract

In the Anthropocene, critical social–ecological transitions hold profound significance for both environmental stability and human well-being. Our study advances a dynamic-based approach to assess the adaptability or transformative potential of social–ecological systems (SES) through time, by integrating a social–ecological coupling index based on rate of change. Drawing on empirical evidence from sedimentary ancient DNA, biophysical, and socioeconomic records, we explore the evolutionary dynamics of interconnected SES in China’s Lake Taihu watershed over the last century. Notably, we present compelling evidence of unprecedented decoupling signals between socioeconomic growth and ecoenvironmental degradation, particularly in the last two decades. These decoupling trends, crucial for sustainability assessments, may remain cryptic if relying solely on the magnitude of change derived from short-term change metrics.